The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System*

In these excerpts from The Squam Lake Report, fifteen distinguished economists analyze where the global financial system failed, and how such failures might be prevented (or at least their damage better contained) in the future. Although there were many contributing factors to the crisis—including “agency” problems throughout the financial system and a bankruptcy code poorly suited for reorganizing financial firms—at the core of the problem is a potential conflict between the risk-taking proclivity of financial institutions and the interests of the economy at large that must be managed at least in part through more effective regulation. The Squam Lake Report provides a nonpartisan plan to transform the regulation of financial markets in ways designed to limit systemic risk while preserving—to the extent possible and prudent—the economies of scale and scope that justify the existence of today's large financial institutions. To reduce the risks that large banks will fail, the authors call for higher capital requirements based on more effective assessments of the risks of bank assets and liabilities, as well as a new systemic regulator that should be part of the central bank. To reduce the costs of failure when it occurs, the authors propose that banks be required to create “living wills” laying out their plan to sell assets or shut down operations in the event of financial trouble. As part of that plan, regulators are urged to “aggressively encourage” banks to issue “contingent” debt capital securities that convert into equity.     

Will the U.S. bank recapitalization succeed? Eight lessons from Japan

During the financial crisis that started in 2007, the U.S. government has used a variety of tools to try to rehabilitate the U.S. banking industry. Many of those strategies were also used in Japan to combat its banking problems in the 1990s. There are also a surprising number of other similarities between the current U.S. crisis and the recent Japanese crisis. The Japanese policies were only partially successful in recapitalizing the banks until the economy finally started to recover in 2003. From these unsuccessful attempts, we derive eight lessons. In light of these eight lessons, we assess the policies the U.S. has pursued. The U.S. has ignored three of the lessons and it is too early to evaluate the U.S. policies with respect to four of the others. So far, the U.S. has avoided Japan's problem of having impaired banks prop up zombie firms.     

Sample size needed for calibrating trip distribution and behavior of the gravity model

Conventional calibration algorithms of trip distribution models assume that the analyst has a whole base year trip matrix. To attain a whole trip matrix, the sample size for travel surveys needed to be as large as possible. However, this could be very expensive especially in large cities. Some studies in the past showed a small sized sample would be enough to estimate functional parameters of observed trip length frequency distribution. But the performance of a gravity model with small sized samples has never been addressed. This empirical study has shown that sample sizes as small as 1000 (even smaller for quick response studies) could be as dependable as large sample surveys using a line search calibration algorithm.     

More on phantom bidding

Summary. A phantom bidding model is analyzed for a sale auction. The following issues are addressed: the effects of phantom bidding on overall social welfare and buyers' profits. It is shown that social welfare may increase or decrease as the auctioneer switches from the fixed reserve price policy to phantom bidding. The buyers' profits will increase whenever social welfare increases. Received: November 4, 1998; revised version: February 8, 1999     

Determination of the efficiency of the world railway companies by method of DEA and comparison of their efficiency by Tobit analysis

This paper attempts to measure the performance of railway companies that produce passenger and freight services around the world. The data covering 10 years from 2000 to 2009 is analyzed first via the data envelopment analysis method in order to obtain technical efficiency and allocative efficiency scores of 31 railway companies for the purpose of the study. In the analysis conducted by use of the CCR model, while total 17 firms were efficient in the first year, this figure reaches to 18 companies for the last year with one more addition. While only two companies seem efficient in the first year, this figure goes down to one for the last year. With input oriented and variable return analysis conducted by use of the BCC model, the firms having technical efficiency at the beginning of the period were 20 in number. At the end of the period, the figure reaches to 24. Next, the outputs of DEA are correlated by Tobit regression and tried to determine decisiveness of the outputs on the efficiency. It has been seen that the same output composition used with Tobit analysis gives more compliant results with the allocative efficiency scores rather than with the technical efficiency scores.     

The Effect of Bank Relations on Investment Decisions: An Investigation of Japanese Takeover Bids

We study 154 domestic mergers in Japan during 1977 to 1993. In contrast to U.S. evidence, mergers are viewed favorably by investors of acquiring firms. We document a two-day acquirer abnormal return of 1.2 percent and a mean cumulative abnormal return of 5.4 percent for the duration of the takeover. Announcement returns display a strong positive association with the strength of acquirer's relationships with banks. The benefits of bank relations appear to be greater for firms with poor investment opportunities and when the banking sector is healthy. We conclude that close ties with informed creditors, such as banks, facilitate investment policies that enhance shareholder wealth.     

Making Innovation Happen in Organizations: Individual Creativity Mechanisms,Organizational Creativity Mechanisms or Both?

Marketing managers increasingly face a product innovation dilemma. Managers will have to sell more with fewer new products in an environment where new products are providing lower revenue yields. Therefore, understanding what drives successful innovation is of paramount importance. This paper examines the organizational innovation hypothesis that innovation is a function of individual efforts and organizational systems to facilitate creativity. Our model formulates creativity as a property of thought process that can be acquired and improved through instruction and practice. In this context, individual creativity mechanisms refer to activities undertaken by individual employees within an organization to enhance their capability for developing something, which is meaningful and novel within their work environment. Organizational creativity mechanisms refer to the extent to which the organization has instituted formal approaches and tools, and provided resources to encourage meaningfully novel behaviors within the organization. Using data collected from 634 organizations, we find support for this hypothesis. The results suggest that the presence of both individual and organizational creativity mechanisms led to the highest level of innovation performance. The results also suggest that high levels of organizational creativity mechanisms (even in the presence of low levels of individual creativity) led to significantly superior innovation performance than low levels of organizational and individual creativity mechanisms. The paper also presents managerial and academic implications. This study suggests that it is not enough for organizations to hire creative people and expect the innovation performance of the firm to be superior. Similarly, it is not enough for firms to emphasize management practices to enhance creativity and ignore individual mechanisms. Although it is true that doing either will improve innovation performance, doing both should lead to higher innovation levels. Our understanding of what and how creativity influences innovation performance can be greatly enhanced by additional research that integrates the intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of creativity. Research that examines the role of team creativity efforts in enhancing innovation performance is also vital to an overall improved understanding of creativity, learning, and innovation within organizations.     

MNE performance during a crisis: An evolutionary perspective on the role of dynamic managerial capabilities and industry context

As the likelihood of worldwide crises increases due to globalization and the resulting economic contagion, understanding why some multinational enterprises (MNEs) prevail in such environments becomes ever more critical. Drawing from the concept of dynamic managerial capabilities, we posit that MNE in-crisis performance is associated with the pre-crisis development of asset management capabilities, or the capacity of managers to orchestrate assets so as to extract more value from the firm’s resource pool. Specifically, we argue that because dynamic managerial capabilities evolve as a response to a firm’s task environment, MNEs that operate in dynamic industries develop stronger asset management capabilities. However, we also posit that whether these capabilities contribute to in-crisis performance is contingent upon the munificence of the industry environment in which the capability evolves. Asset management capabilities that evolve in munificent environments would encompass a wider spectrum of routine-altering activities, and thus increase the ability of the MNE to react to more revolutionary events, such as global economic crises. Conversely, asset management capabilities that evolve in resource-scarce environments will result in more strategic lock-in due to firms' constrained ability to experiment with novel resource configurations, resulting in poorer in-crisis performance. We test our hypotheses using a sample of 854 MNEs in the context of the global financial crisis of 2008, and find support for our hypotheses. We discuss implications for the dynamic capabilities view and MNE resilience.